Things seem changing so fast I'd have a tough time just posting updates, but I still want to take a little time off to address one of the more egregious errors that has been made in a lot of Western commentary. That is that Yushchenko is the clear Western candidate (Or US candidate if you happen to be obsessed with the US) and Yanukovych is the clear pro-Russian candidate. How do these arguments stack up against the candidates histories?

Yushchenko

As Prime Minister, Yushchenko did quite a bit to pay off Ukraine's oil debts to Russia, allowed greater market access to Russian companies (especially oil companies) and cracked down on cheats stealing Russian oil from transit pipelines running through Ukraine. Basically he worked to create a level playing field, and that gave the Russians a chance just like everyone else. He also helped increase Ukraine's financial discipline, and thus set the country on a more stable economic path, good for everyone hoping to do business with the country. He did a good job, and a profitable one for Russia, why wouldn't the Russian government approve?

The Odesa-Brody Pipeline Controversy

One thing the Russian government does have against him is that he is against a reverse-use plan for a newly completed Ukrainian pipeline from Odesa to Brody (in Poland). Why?

Basically, the pipeline was built to provide Ukraine with a better way to get oil from the 'Stans directly to Europe. This would bypass routes going through Russia and thus give Ukraine more leverage as an oil transit country. Of course the Russians hate the idea, so they proposed to run the pipeline in reverse, from Poland to Odesa, so that oil could be shipped back and sent to theoretically receptive Russian markets. The vast majority of independent analysis found this plan far less attractive, in fact the only people who found it really attractive were the scientists working for Russian TNK and their partner British Petroleum.

So the Parliament voted against running it in reverse last spring. But Kuchma and his government needed Russian government support at the time because people here hate him (Kuchma gets single digit popularity ratings), and because Russia is a big neighbor doing business with Ukraine, any president would need to work with the Russia government. So Kuchma's government played games. Legally the pipeline should have been pumping to Poland, but the Kuchma government didn't turn on the tap. Instead it continued to listen as TNK-BP gave their case. With no oil flowing and the government still gabbing with TNK-BP, the Poles said, "What the heck is going on here?" and started backing away, unsure of what kind of deal they could make that wouldn't get turned around on them.

Then the Kuchma government was able to say (after only 5ish months of a shut off pipeline wasting Ukraine's investment) that the Poles were shaky, Ukraine should go with Russia. So that's what they quietly tried to do during the summer.

Yushchenko opposed this because it was a less attractive investment. When Russian businesses had solid business proposals he was for them, it's only the shaky ones he opposed.

The CES (Common Economic Space)
sometimes called the Common Economic Space or Single Economic Space

The second thing the Russians have against Yushchenko is that he is not as big on the CEA as Yanukovych. The Common Economic Area is a Russia idea to have a special Free-Trade-Zone+ with Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan that would allow free movement of goods, services, capital and people between them, perhaps. All well and good, free trade and open borders are good for economic growth.

But this is Eastern Europe, the grand beautiful goals of a project aren't nearly as important as the gritty bits. Whether the CEA will be just a free trade zone, or an open border area, or whatever, isn't set down yet. It could be anything, it could be nothing. It could be tighter than the EU or less important than GUUAM (Georgia, (sometimes Uzbekistan), Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Moldova).[thank you very much Ruy for pointing out that I'd originally said Macedonia here. Boy am I embarrassed] But while it is up in the air, the EU, NATO and the WTO are going to be worried about Ukraine, and less likely to let Ukraine in. Of course the EU is (at the least) a decade away from letting Ukraine in anyway, but both NATO and the WTO are possible in the not too distant future, if Ukraine charts a course more firmly along the Polish path... away from Russian influence.

Yushchenko has opposed the CEA to the extent that the union is a pig-in-a-poke. Kuchma is also not wild on the idea. He has been doing what he does best, playing for time and not making promises.

Ultimately Yushchenko would only accept a CEA which did not cut off Ukraine's chances at faster economic development through integration with more developed economies. Yanukovych has sounded much more warm to the idea, and less worried about the economic details.

Concluding Speculation

The two legitimate issues Russia has with Yushchenko are both issues in which Yushchenko is taking a principled stand, based on the data available, in support of Ukraine's interests. In matters having to do with economics he has promoted stability and fair practice, which should be in the interest of any country interested in playing fair.

But say, hypothetically, Ukraine was ruled by an unpopular but powerful President willing to suppress dissent and independent media and closely tied to pro-Russian parts of the country, with debts to the Russians personally for supporting his campaign.

Such a person would be more pliable than Yushchenko, because a strongman is less tied to the interests of his country than a democrat. Instead of having to work with Ukraine in the interest of the whole nation, the Russian government would only need to address the desires of the strongman, confident that internal protest could be quashed or cordoned off in small intellectual circles without a wider audience. As a double bonus, the strongman would make Europeans edgy, thus prompting them to become cooler on Ukraine and push the country away more. Between Russian pull and European push, Russia could avoid losing influence over Ukraine the way it lost influence over an economically western-oriented Poland.

That's Yushchenko and Russia, in the next posting we'll talk about Yanukovych.